Building An Enduring Advantage In The Third Space Age | American Enterprise Institute

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The United States is leading the world into a new era of space activity known as the third space age. Unlike the militarization and exploration of the first space age (1957–90) and the diversification and stagnation of the second space age (1991–2015), the third space age (2016–present) is defined by rapid commercialization and proliferation. In this new era, US space capabilities and capacity are second to none, but China, Russia, and other nations are actively working to erode this advantage. This report provides quantitative insights and analysis of the trends in space launch, satellites, and space debris and makes recommendations for how to build an enduring advantage for the United States in space.

The global annual launch rate hit an all-time high of 211 successful orbital launches in 2023, driven mainly by the United States and China, which each logged their highest launch rate ever at 103 and 66 launches, respectively. The US lead is even more stark considering that it comprised 81 percent of global effective launch capacity in 2023—four times the rest of the world combined. The introduction of much larger US launch vehicles, particularly SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's New Glenn, and the higher degree of reusability these vehicles employ will further increase the US lead. These disruptive changes will give the United States a unique ability to launch much larger payloads at much lower costs, enabling new generations of satellites with designs unconstrained by size, weight, and power.