What's Next For SpaceX's Falcon 9 Rocket

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MIT Technology Review 's What's Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here .

SpaceX's Falcon 9 is one of the world's safest, most productive rockets. But now it's been grounded: A rare engine malfunction on July 11 prompted the US Federal Aviation Administration to initiate an investigation and halt all Falcon 9 flights until further notice. The incident has exposed the risks of the US aerospace industry's heavy reliance on the rocket.

"The aerospace industry is very dependent on the Falcon 9," says Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who issues regular reports on space launches . He says the Falcon 9 and the closely related Falcon Heavy represented 83% of US launches in 2023. "There's a lot of traffic that's going to be backed up waiting for it to return to flight," he adds.

During a SpaceX livestream, ice could be seen accumulating on the Falcon 9's engine following its launch from California's Vandenberg Space Force Base en route to releasing 20 Starlink satellites. According to SpaceX, this buildup of ice caused a liquid oxygen leak. Then part of the engine failed, and the rocket dropped several satellites into a lower orbit than intended, one in which they could readily fall back into Earth's atmosphere.

By July 12, an FAA press statement was circulating on X. The federal agency said it was aware of the malfunction and would require an investigation. "A return to flight is based on the FAA determining that any system, process, or procedure related to the mishap does not affect public safety," said the statement.

SpaceX says it will cooperate with the investigation. "SpaceX will perform a full investigation in coordination with the FAA, determine root cause, and make corrective actions to ensure the success of future missions," says a statement on the company's website. Details about what the investigation will entail and how long it might take are unknown. In the meantime, SpaceX has requested to keep flying the Falcon 9 while the investigation takes place. "The FAA is reviewing the request and will be guided by safety at every step of the process," said the agency in a statement.