While the chances of the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in seven years are slim – there is currently a 96% chance it won't happen – an impact of this size would not come without consequences for the Moon, astronauts and spacecraft orbiting Earth.
A new study submitted for review by scientists with the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University in Canada took observations from the James Webb Space Telescope of asteroid 2024 YR4 and used simulations to show how much lunar debris would be ejected out into space, sending pieces of the Moon toward Earth.
After its initial discovery late last year, the asteroid appeared to have a small chance of impacting Earth, warranting international attention, and jumping to the highest asteroid threat ever given on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. By February, more ground-based observations of the asteroid helped clear the threat to Earth, but the Moon still faces a possible impact.
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 crashes into the Moon, it would create a crater more than half a mile in diameter (1 km), becoming the largest impact in about 5,000 years, according to the study. Current calculations show, if it happens, an impact would occur on the Southern Hemisphere.
The researchers said this impact would threaten satellites in low-Earth orbit for days or up to a few months, and send a fraction of the ejecta toward Earth.
Any lunar debris that makes it within Earth's atmosphere could create a meteor shower event over the planet.
⁘The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular, though the number of visible meteors somewhat muted by the low entry speed of ejecta,⁘ the research team said.
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