The Growing Risk Of Space Debris Hitting Earth And Planes

As published in MIT Technology Review:

A Boeing 737 recently made an emergency landing after a mysterious object cracked its windshield at 36,000 feet above Utah. The incident sparked speculation that the plane had been hit by space debris. While the exact object ___ unknown, it's likely a remnant of a weather balloon. The risk of flights being struck by space junk is growing, albeit still small.

The European Space Agency estimates that about three pieces of old space equipment fall into Earth's atmosphere daily. By the mid-2030s, this number may increase to dozens, largely due to the surge in satellites orbiting the planet. Currently, approximately 12,900 active satellites encircle the Earth, with estimates suggesting this number may skyrocket to 100,000 within a decade.

To mitigate orbital collisions, operators often guide defunct satellites to burn up in the atmosphere. However, the reentry process is not well understood, and it's unclear how much material burns up versus reaching the ground. According to Richard Ocaya, a professor of physics at the University of Free State in South Africa, "The number of such landfall events is increasing... We expect it may be increasing exponentially in the next few years." Recent incidents support Ocaya's claims. In February, a 1.

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