A building-sized asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, may collide with the moon in 2032, scattering debris into near-Earth space. According to NASA aerospace engineer Brent Barbee, there's a 4 percent chance of a lunar impact and a 1 percent chance that the asteroid will scatter tiny meteorites toward Earth, posing risks to satellites and astronauts.
The potential impact could release energy equivalent to 6 million metric tons of TNT, roughly 400 times the energy released by the Hiroshima bomb. Scientists initially thought YR4 might hit Earth, but further observations ruled out that possibility. The asteroid's size and mass are estimated to be around 60 meters wide, but precise details are unknown.
To mitigate risks, Barbee suggests deflecting or breaking up YR4 using a fast-moving impactor or a nuclear blast at least three months before the lunar impact. A reconnaissance mission in the next few years could provide crucial information, but development would need to start soon. Hawaii would have an excellent view of the potential impact, while the western United States would have a fairly favorable view.
The estimated collision date is December 22, 2032. According to Science News, Barbee presented these findings at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting on ← →
NEW ORLEANS — There's about a 4 percent chance that a building-sized asteroid will hit the moon in 2032.Related perspectives: Visit website
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