Falling Space Debris Is Increasingly Threatening Airplanes, Researchers Say

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Space debris from rocket bodies orbiting Earth is posing an increased threat to aircraft while falling from space, according to new research.

While the probability of space junk striking an airplane is low, the risk is rising due to increases in both the aviation industry and the space flight industry, according to a paper published in Scientific Reports .

Space junk originates from everything that is launched by human access to outer space -- including satellites and equipment for exploration, Aaron Boley, an associate professor of physics and astronomy at the University of British Columbia and co-director of the Outer Space Institute, told ABC News. Rockets are used to insert satellites into orbit, and a lot of material gets left behind.

⁘Now that we have such growth in our use of outer space, a lot of the problems associated with that are coming to bear,⁘ said Boley, one of the authors of the paper.

There are probably about 50,000 pieces of space junk the size of a softball or larger floating near Earth, Boley said. When considering objects between a centimeter or half a millimeter, the number is likely in the millions, he said.

⁘When they re-enter, they break apart and they do not demise entirely in the atmosphere,⁘ Boley said.

The study focused especially on rocket bodies due to their size. Rocket bodies tend to be massive and heat resistant and pose casualty risks for people on the ground, at sea or in the air.

The research broke down the risks depending on regions of airspace by tracking the highest density of air traffic using 2023 data. Places like Vancouver, Seattle and the Eastern seaboard had about a 25% chance each year of being disrupted by re-entry of space debris, the paper found.